Bitcoin Continues to Decouple from AI Tech Stocks

Ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Bitcoin is showing a differentiated trend from artificial intelligence (AI) related tech stocks. In July, Bitcoin rose by about 6%, while AI-related stocks fell by approximately 20%, indicating that digital assets are behaving differently from traditional risk assets. Market forecasts suggest that if the Fed signals a dovish stance, Bitcoin's relative strength will continue. According to CoinMarketCap on the 28th, Bitcoin recovered most of its intraday losses and maintained a range around $64,000. In contrast, AI-related tech stocks and semiconductors continue to show weakness. Betle Runde from K33 Research analyzed that while the Nasdaq has seen excessive positioning after a strong rally, Bitcoin is in a sideways phase, leading to a weakening correlation between the two assets. Block Scholes noted that the divergence between Bitcoin and the stock market has become more pronounced in July, with Bitcoin rising about 6% while the S&P 500 index remained flat and semiconductor-focused indices fell by about 20%. According to the CME FedWatch, the market sees a 70% chance of a freeze in the benchmark interest rate at this FOMC meeting, while the possibility of a 25 basis point increase stands at around 30%. Block Scholes analyst Tahbib Raman mentioned that recent inflation slowdown, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and tariff risks are shaking the market's interest rate outlook.

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