Bitcoin rebounds but the options market remains cautious, with only a 25% chance of breaking through $84,000

Bitcoin has returned above $78,000, and overall market risk appetite has rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising to a record high on Friday. Although Bitcoin has risen 15% in the past 30 days, the options market is pricing in only a 25% chance of Bitcoin rising above $84,000 by the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical about further increases, but institutional spot demand remains robust.

The price of Bitcoin call options (buy) expiring on May 29 with a strike price of $84,000 is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising 8% in May. Bitcoin put options (sell) have been trading at a premium for the past month, indicating an increased demand for downside price protection. The lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions can be partly explained by Bitcoin's 12% decline so far in 2026. Despite derivatives traders' lack of confidence in Bitcoin reaching $84,000, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has sent different signals, with a cumulative net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $10 billion. This metric is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand.

Additionally, in the past 30 days, several publicly listed companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin reserves, including 56,235 BTC from Strategy and 5,075 BTC from Metaplanet. These companies' increases have surpassed the equivalent of Bitcoin mining output for the next five months, significantly reducing potential selling pressure. The insufficient demand for bullish derivatives exposure does not negate the probability of BTC prices rising to $84,000 or higher by the end of May. As long as institutional buying remains strong, bullish momentum should continue.