G10 Forex Low Volatility Expected to Persist Until Early September
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The low volatility in the G10 forex market is expected to continue through late August and into early September. As the U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting approaches, the market is gradually lowering its expectations for interest rate hikes. Morgan Stanley analysts have stated that the economic indicators released before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are likely to align with expectations for the Fed to maintain interest rates. According to the report, the long-term relationship between Fed policy pricing and forex volatility is not significant, suggesting that forex volatility may face downward pressure. The G10 forex market primarily moves around major currencies such as the dollar, euro, and yen, and the speed at which interest rate forecasts are reflected in exchange rate pricing does not always match actual volatility. Forex volatility is related not only to major currencies but also to the price movements of risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum mentioned alongside dollar liquidity and U.S. interest rate expectations. The market outlook for the September interest rate path may vary, and the report suggests that if economic indicators continue to align with expectations for interest rate stability, the anticipation for rate hikes will diminish. Morgan Stanley also noted the potential for Middle Eastern risks to act as a factor in increasing forex volatility.
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