Gold Price Reaches 4643.95 USD, Ends 6-Month Correction

Gold price trades at 4643.95 USD on Monday, marking a three-month high after a 17% rally from its July low. December COMEX futures surpassed 4700 USD for the first time in over three months. This movement concludes a correction that began at the January record of 5598 USD and lasted approximately 26 weeks. Both weekly and daily charts indicate that the downtrend has been broken. The rally gained momentum last week following the US federal debt exceeding 40 trillion USD, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increasing debt buyback operations and the dollar index falling below 100. Central banks contributed with 289 tonnes of purchases in Q2, a 62% year-over-year increase. The weekly chart shows the correction bottomed at 3942.92 USD, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Gold briefly dipped below 4000 USD during this period but the weekly RSI remained above 40, suggesting a correction within a bull trend. The week ending August 21 marked a structural change as gold closed above its 20-week moving average for the first time since April. The daily chart indicates gold broke a descending trendline from the January record in early August near 4100 USD, climbing about 13% since. Daily RSI is at 71.7, its first reading above 70 since January, while the weekly RSI is at 60, indicating medium-term strength. Resistance levels are at 4700 USD and 4750 to 4800 USD, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of 4900 USD. Support begins at 4500 USD, with a weekly close below 4300 USD invalidating the breakout.

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