Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 WFE Forecast to $150 Billion

The forecast for spending on front-end semiconductor equipment (WFE) in 2026 has been raised to $150 billion. It has been suggested that demand for AI servers could stimulate investments in memory and foundries. Goldman Sachs has projected WFE figures for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at $150 billion, $218 billion, and $281 billion respectively, which are increases of 6%, 17%, and 35% compared to previous forecasts. The annual growth rates have been adjusted to 36% for 2026, 45% for 2027, and 29% for 2028. WFE refers to the investment scale of front-end equipment that turns wafers into semiconductors, including lithography, etching, and deposition equipment. The increase in demand for AI semiconductors is expected to expand investments in memory, advanced process foundries, and packaging equipment. In DRAM, the capital expenditure forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been raised by 22% and 19% respectively. The mass production of HBM4 is expected to increase demand for etching and deposition equipment. TSMC's annual capital expenditure forecast has also been raised to $8 billion. Goldman Sachs has included approximately $16.8 billion in early-stage equipment investments from SpaceX and Tesla's Terafab in its WFE forecast. This adjustment will also impact the South Korean semiconductor value chain, as investments in AI data centers could lead to memory supply and equipment bottlenecks.

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