In This Cycle, Don't Pay for Stories Anymore

After deep conversations with several seasoned players in the blockchain space, I have summarized four rules for surviving in cryptocurrency by focusing on cash flow.

Written by: Haotian

Recently, after in-depth discussions with a few experienced friends in the blockchain field, we reached a high consensus on the survival rules for the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from "listening to stories and speculating on expectations" to "focusing on cash flow and verifying reality." Here are some insights on cryptocurrency trading (for reference only):

1) Prioritize assets with real value capture capabilities.

In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and expectations, while in a bear market, it only recognizes real cash flow and buyback records. The true "get out of jail free card" in this cycle is protocols that can continuously generate fees and directly return these fees to token holders through buybacks, burns, or dividends. For example, recently performing well are launchpad concept tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and the buyback king of this cycle, $HYPE;

2) Only choose projects with proven PMF and a complete closed loop.

Because the next cycle, barring any surprises, will only have two narratives related to "asset tokenization" and "Agentic Economy" (Perps, predictions, stablecoins, Payments), the market will shift from a preference for technical narratives to a practical verification route. Projects without real users, real trading loops, or real income will be quickly filtered out. Concept tokens following this line of thought include: $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL, etc., with a focus on actual AUM trading volume and fee generation capabilities;

3) Choose assets with strong "consensus."

It must be acknowledged that the only thing that has withstood the test through several cycles in the crypto industry is the word "consensus." Note that this consensus is one that naturally ferments in the market and has cross-cycle capabilities. Do not confuse this with the so-called "consensus" that is manufactured by industrialized hype from a tweet response. The truly promising assets are those that newcomers cannot fully understand but maintain good liquidity and continue to thrive. For example, older Cult MEME tokens like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or leading assets in various niche markets like $ZEC, $TAO, have survived multiple bull and bear cycles, with strong community vitality that attracts major funds for repeated trading;

4) Avoid pure VC tokens as much as possible.

If I say altcoins are dead, you might still argue with the cyclical nature of finance, but if I say VC tokens are dead, basically no one will disagree. This is because high FDV, low circulation, and continuous large unlocks of VC tokens can only rely on the hype around airdrop expectations before and after TGE. If the project lacks value capture capabilities, it will inevitably face insufficient development momentum, leading to the awkward situation of a price drop upon unlocking. This is the fundamental reason for the current cycle's "bulls not going crazy, bears going deep," with a large number of starving VCs waiting to unlock and sell off. How can retail investors dare to touch such tokens?

Note: The above is merely a summary of personal discussions with friends, and the mentioned tokens are only examples and do not constitute investment advice.