"Liquidity continues to drain from the market," says Darkfost

• Major stablecoins have reduced their supply by about USD 15 billion in two months.
• It is possible that some of the capital is rotating towards AI stocks and large IPOs.

Since early May 2026, the supply of major stablecoins has fallen from approximately 265 billion dollars to about 250 billion.

For Darkfost, an analyst who publishes on the CryptoQuant platform, this contraction confirms that the cryptocurrency market continues to lose liquidity. "Liquidity continues to drain from the market," stated the specialist in an analysis published on July 12.

The reduction amounts to about 15 billion dollars in just two months and reflects that currently more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering. This outflow is similar to that recorded during the correction of March-April 2025, when the drain exceeded 18 billion in the same period.

"The supply of stablecoins is decreasing because currently there is more liquidity flowing out of the crypto market than coming in," explained Darkfost.

Stablecoins ---such as USDT and USDC--- are the main vehicle through which investors enter and exit the digital asset market.

Therefore, the evolution of their supply is often used as an indicator of the liquidity available to buy bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies.

When a user decides to exit the market and redeems their stablecoins for fiat money, the issuers destroy ---or "burn"--- those tokens to maintain parity with the dollar. This dynamic allows for an indirect measurement of whether capital is entering or leaving the ecosystem.

The chart created with data from CryptoQuant confirms this trend.
The outflow of liquidity continues to dominate over new inflows. Source: Darkfost -- X.

The red line shows the evolution of the supply of major stablecoins and the black line, the price of bitcoin. At the bottom, the green bars represent liquidity inflows into the market and the red ones, outflows. In turn, the lower black line reflects the net change in liquidity over the last 30 days, which currently hovers around 6 billion dollars.

Overall, the indicators show that more capital continues to leave the ecosystem than enters.

Where is that money going?

The reduction in the supply of stablecoins does not necessarily mean that those funds have disappeared from the financial system.

One possibility is that some of the capital is rotating towards AI stocks and large IPOs that currently offer better profit prospects.

The renewed interest in U.S. equities coincides with this hypothesis. In recent weeks, the S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs.

Additionally, investor enthusiasm intensified following the IPO of SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace company, which featured the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history by raising 75 billion dollars, as reported by CriptoNoticias. Since its debut on Nasdaq on June 12, its shares have risen from 150 dollars to trade above 200 dollars.
SpaceX's stock debuted on the exchange a month ago. Source: TradingView.

This is compounded by the expectation of new mega IPOs linked to the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Among the companies that the market is closely watching are OpenAI ---developer of ChatGPT, although it has not yet confirmed an IPO--- and Anthropic.

Other private AI companies could also become the next big stock market debuts. In this context, the debate is not only about how much liquidity exists, but about where investors are deciding to allocate it.

A signal that the market will continue to observe

The evolution of the supply of stablecoins often anticipates significant changes in the behavior of the cryptocurrency market.

During bullish cycles (such as those of 2021 or 2025), an increase in supply generally reflects the entry of new capital willing to take risks.

In contrast, when that supply begins to decrease for several consecutive weeks, it is often interpreted as a signal that investors are withdrawing funds from the ecosystem. "The trend remains negative for now," concluded Darkfost.

As long as the supply of stablecoins does not begin to grow sustainably again, liquidity will continue to be one of the main challenges for bitcoin and the rest of the market. A recovery driven by new capital flows will require, above all, that this trend changes again.

The coming days will be key to confirming the trend. Investors should monitor the daily supply of stablecoins, the net flow to centralized exchanges, and bitcoin's dominance.

If the contraction remains above 5 billion weekly, it is likely that the downward pressure will continue. Conversely, a sustained increase in issuance could signal the return of liquidity to the market.

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