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Next Week Macro Outlook: Fed Set The Tone Week! The Fed Faces the "Ultimate Showdown"
BlockBeats News, November 30th. This week, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, market trading volume has been consistently low, which is a typical feature of Thanksgiving trading. However, due to a data center outage at the CME Group on Friday, the spot prices of gold and silver experienced significant volatility. After the futures prices recovered, they continued to rise, with the price of gold surging nearly $150 this week, returning to above $4200. On the data front, U.S. September PPI and retail sales data performed poorly, and the weekly private sector employment data released by ADP was also quite weak.
On Tuesday at 9:00 AM, Federal Reserve Chair Powell gave a speech at a commemorative event;
On Tuesday at 11:00 PM, Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman made a statement to the House Committee.
On Wednesday at 9:15 PM, U.S. November ADP Employment Numbers;
On Wednesday at 9:30 PM, U.S. September Import Price Index MoM;
On Wednesday at 10:15 PM, U.S. September Industrial Production MoM;
On Wednesday at 10:45 PM, U.S. November final S&P Global Services PMI;
On Wednesday at 11:00 PM, U.S. November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
On Thursday at 9:30 PM, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29th;
On Friday at 11:00 PM, U.S. December 1-year Inflation Rate Expectation preliminary value, December University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, September Core PCE Price Index YoY, September Personal Spending MoM, September Core PCE Price Index MoM.
If service sector activity in November shows healthy growth again, it will support the hawks within the Federal Reserve internally, and if it suddenly falls to 50.0 or lower, it will support immediate rate cut justifications. Equally important is the ADP employment report next Wednesday. The official November non-farm payroll report will not be released until December 16th, and with the October report canceled, the ADP private employment survey will provide a crucial update on the labor market.
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