NVIDIA to Lower Specifications for Rubin Ultra, Increasing HBM Demand Outlook

NVIDIA is pursuing a plan to lower some specifications of its next-generation AI accelerator, Rubin Ultra, which analysts suggest could positively impact the HBM market. While the capacity of HBM may decrease, the number of required accelerators is expected to increase, potentially expanding overall HBM consumption. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri noted that NVIDIA is testing several versions of Rubin Ultra with reduced memory capacity due to concerns over HBM supply shortages. Prices for HBM4 and HBM4E are expected to rise more than previously anticipated, with the average selling price (ASP) of HBM projected to increase by about 79% year-on-year. If the supply shortage in the HBM market persists, major memory manufacturers such as Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics are likely to benefit. Micron's Chief Business Officer (CBO) stated that customer demand is rapidly increasing, indicating that supply shortages will continue. The expansion of HBM production is also affecting the supply of other memory products, and if investments in AI infrastructure increase, the pace of supply expansion may not keep up with rising demand. Additionally, the demand environment in the NAND flash market is improving, with data center demand offsetting the sluggishness in the PC market. There are also analyses suggesting that a decrease in HBM deployment may not negatively impact HBM demand.

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