Retail Bitcoin Inflows on Binance Double That of Whales, Whale Inflows Down 44.3%

Data on Bitcoin inflows to Binance shows that total inflows from whales over the past 30 days amounted to $3.9 billion, a decrease of 44.3% from the peak of $7 billion on June 12; in contrast, retail inflows reached $7.8 billion, down only 22% from $10 billion on June 5. Retail inflows are approximately double that of whales, with a gap of $3.9 billion. This divergence occurs on the eve of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, where federal funds futures indicate a roughly 36% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, making it more likely that the target range will remain unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. An unexpected rate hike could support the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing volatility in risk assets; however, if a pause in rate hikes is accompanied by dovish guidance, it may alleviate macroeconomic pressures. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday will be a key variable in testing whether this divergence continues or begins to converge.