Tom Lee Predicts Fed Will Restart Quantitative Tightening

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, stated that the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 30 at 2:00 PM, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged. Federal funds futures indicate a 32% probability of a rate hike. He mentioned that since the June meeting, among the 12 voting Federal Reserve officials, 3 have been hawkish, 2 have been dovish, and Chair Powell has repeatedly expressed a neutral stance. Tom Lee believes that the Fed may announce the restart of quantitative tightening (QT). He pointed out that the current Fed has a relatively new style, and the market has low visibility regarding the policy path, which is precisely the effect that Powell hopes to achieve. When the market lacks visibility, the event itself may restore visibility; the stock market may perform better after the FOMC decision is announced, especially considering that institutions like Citadel have called for the Fed to raise rates. He believes this could stabilize AI-related stocks like Micron, which have fallen 41% from their recent highs, with a forward P/E ratio of 5.37, below the long-term average of 6.52, reflecting that the current stock price has already factored in a lot of pessimistic expectations.