USDT Insolvent? Arthur Hayes Publicly Questions Tether
Original Title: "Arthur Hayes Warns of USDT Insolvency Risk, Why the Recent FUD Frenzy?"
Original Author: Azuma, Odaily Star Daily
Following a public feud with Monad, "Big Brother" Arthur Hayes has once again unexpectedly clashed with the stablecoin king Tether.
Arthur Hayes: USDT May Face "Insolvency" Risk
The incident originated on November 30th when Arthur Hayes posted on X regarding Tether's publicly disclosed third-quarter reserves at the end of October. He analyzed that Tether's allocation of volatile assets such as gold and Bitcoin in its reserve assets is too high. USDT may face an "insolvency" risk due to the decline of these assets.
"The Tether team is in the early stages of a massive interest rate trade. Based on my understanding of their audit report, they believe the Fed will start cutting rates, which will significantly compress their interest income. In response, they started buying gold and Bitcoin—ideally, when the 'currency price falls' (rate cut), these assets should rise. But if their gold + Bitcoin position drops by about 30%, Tether's equity will be wiped out, and USDT theoretically will face insolvency."
As shown in the above chart, out of a total of $181.223 billion in Tether's reserve assets, there is a $12.921 billion reserve of precious metals (7.1% share) and a $9.856 billion reserve of Bitcoin (5.4% share)—the combined share of these two assets reaches 12.5% of Tether's total reserve assets.
From Tether's reserve structure, it can be seen that Arthur Hayes may have objectively pointed out a potential extreme scenario that Tether may face. If the gold and Bitcoin reserves simultaneously experience a significant devaluation, theoretically, the value of Tether's reserve assets will not be able to fully cover the issuance scale of USDT.
This point was also mentioned by the well-known rating agency Standard & Poor's last week when downgrading Tether's and USDT's stability ratings, stating "Tether's Bitcoin reserve value accounts for approximately 5.6% of the total USDT circulation volume (Odaily Note: Standard & Poor's here is comparing circulation volume, so the percentage data will be slightly higher than when compared to reserves), exceeding USDT's own 3.9% excess collateralization rate. This means that other low-risk reserve assets (mainly government bonds) are no longer able to fully support the value of USDT. If BTC and other high-risk assets decline in value, it may weaken the coverage ability of USDT's reserves, leading to under-collateralization of USDT."
Is USDT Still Safe?
Arthur Hayes actually described the same situation as Standard & Poor's, but the likelihood of this situation actually occurring is very minimal, for two specific reasons.
· Firstly, it is hard to imagine an instantaneous sharp drop in the price of gold and Bitcoin (referring to a drop of at least several tens of points in a very short period), even in a scenario of sustained decline, Tether theoretically has time to replenish its reserve of low-risk assets by selling.
· Secondly, besides its reserve assets, Tether itself holds a huge amount of proprietary assets, which are sufficient as a reserve buffer pool for USDT to sustain the operation of this cash flow machine.
Joseph, former Cryptocurrency Research Head at Citigroup, also mentioned the second point, stating that the assets disclosed by Tether do not represent all of its holdings—when Tether generates profits, they have a separate equity balance sheet that is not publicly disclosed together with the reserve situation; Tether has an extremely strong profitability, and the value of its equity is very high, allowing them to offset any gaps on the balance sheet by selling equity; Tether will not go bankrupt; on the contrary, they have a money-printing machine.

Tether's Response
Yesterday evening, as FUD related to this matter escalated, Tether's CEO Paolo Ardoino responded in a post, stating that as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, Tether holds approximately $70 billion in excess equity (beyond the approximately $184.5 billion stablecoin reserves), along with an additional approximately $23 billion in retained earnings, together constituting Tether Group's proprietary equity.
A clear comparison of assets and liabilities:
· Total assets of the Tether Group: approximately $215 billion;
· Stablecoin liabilities: approximately $184.5 billion;
Standard & Poor's also made the same mistake, failing to account for these additional group equities, and not considering the approximately $500 million in basic monthly profits generated solely from U.S. Treasury bond returns.
Interestingly, Paolo Ardoino concluded with a special note: "Some internet celebrities either have poor math skills or impure motives."
· Odaily Note: Arthur Hayes and his family office investment firm Maelstrom are key investors in the interest-bearing stablecoin Ethena (USDe), and have repeatedly predicted that USDe will become the largest stablecoin by issuance volume.

After Paolo Ardoino responded directly, Arthur Hayes also replied again, but his remarks were somewhat sarcastic: "You guys are making so much money, I'm so jealous. Do you have a specific dividend policy? Or a target overcollateralization rate based on asset type (discounted by its volatility)? Obviously, when your liability is in dollars and your asset is U.S. Treasuries, there is no problem, but if your asset is illiquid private investments, in case of an accident, people may question your claim of being overcollateralized."
After this exchange, neither party continued to reply. Arthur Hayes did post a dynamic this morning, but it was just about calling a bounce in the market.

From the photos shared by Arthur Hayes, after ranting about Monad and Tether in succession, his mood seemed quite good...
You may also like

2% user contribution, 90% trading volume: The real picture of Polymarket

Trump Can't Take It Anymore, 5 Signals of the US-Iran Ceasefire

Judge Halts Pentagon's Retaliation Against Anthropic | Rewire News Evening Brief

Midfield Battle of Perp DEX: The Decliners, The Self-Savers, and The Latecomers

Iran War Stalemate: What Signal Should the Market Follow?

Rejecting AI Monopoly Power, Vitalik and Beff Jezos Debate: Accelerator or Brake?

Insider Trading Alert! Will Trump Call a Truce by End of April?

After establishing itself as the top tokenized stock, does Ondo have any new highlights?

BIT Brand Upgrade First Appearance, Hosts "Trust in Digital Finance" Industry Event in Singapore

OpenClaw Founder Interview: Why the US Should Learn from China on AI Implementation
WEEX AI Wars II: Enlist as an AI Agent Arsenal and Lead the Battle
Where the thunder of legions falls into a hallowed hush, the true kings of arena are crowned in gold and etched into eternity. Season 1 of WEEX AI Wars has ended, leaving a battlefield of glory. Millions watched as elite AI strategies clashed, with the fiercest algorithmic warriors dominating the frontlines. The echoes of victory still reverberate. Now, the call to arms sounds once more!
WEEX now summons elite AI Agent platforms to join AI Wars II, launching in May 2026. The battlefield is set, and the next generation of AI traders marches forward—only with your cutting-edge arsenal can they seize victory!
Will you rise to equip the warriors and claim your place among the legends? Can your AI Agent technology dominate the battlefield? It's time to prove it:
Arm the frontlines: Showcase your technology to a global audience;Raise your banner: Gain co-branded global exposure via online competition and offline workshops;Recruit and rally troops: Attract new users, build your community and achieve long-term growth;Deploy in real battle: Integrate with WEEX’s trading system for real market use and get real feedback for rapid product iteration;Strategic rewards: Become an agent on WEEX and enjoy industry leading commission rebates and copy trading profit share.Join WEEX AI Wars II now to sound the charge!
Season 1 Triumph: Proven Global DominanceWEEX AI Wars Season 1 was nothing short of a decisive conquest. Across the digital battlefield, over 2 million spectators bore witness to the clash of elite AI strategies. Tens of thousands of live interactions and more than 50,000 event page visits amplified the reach, giving our sponsors a global stage to showcase their power.
Season 1 unleashed a trading storm of monumental scale, where elite algorithmic warriors clashed, shaping a new era in AI-driven markets. $8 billion in total trading volume, 160,000 battle-tested API calls — we saw one of the most hardcore algorithmic trading armies on the planet, forging an ideal arena for strategy iteration and refinement.
On the ground, workshop campaigns in Dubai, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Munich, and Turkey brought AI trading directly to the frontlines. Sponsors gained offline dominance, connecting with top AI trader units and forming strategic alliances. Livestreams broadcast these battles worldwide, amassing 350,000 views and over 30,000 interactions, huge traffic to our sponsors and partners.
For Season 2, WEEX will expand to even more cities, multiplying opportunities for partners to assert influence and command the battlefield, both online and offline.
Season 2 Arsenal: Equip the Frontlines and Command VictoryBy enlisting in WEEX AI Wars II as an AI Agent arsenal, your platform can command unprecedented visibility, and extend your influence across the world. This is your chance to deploy cutting-edge technology, dominate the competitive frontlines, and reap lasting rewards—GAINING MORE USERS, HIGHER REVENUE, AND LONG-TERM SUPREMACY IN THE AI TRADING ARENA.
Reach WEEX’s 8 million userbase and global crypto community. Unleash your potential on a global stage! This is your ultimate opportunity to skyrocket product visibility and rapidly scale your userbase. Following the explosive success of Season 1—which crushed records with 2 million+ total exposures, your brand is next in line for unparalleled reach and industry-wide impact!Test and showcase your AI Agent in real markets. Throw your AI Agents into the ultimate arena! Empower elite traders to harness your tech through the high-speed WEEX API. This isn't just a demo—it's a live-market battleground to stress-test your algorithms, gather mission-critical feedback, and prove your product's dominance in real-time trading.Gain extensive co-branded exposure and traffic support. Command the spotlight! As a partner, your brand will saturate our entire ecosystem, from viral social media blitzes to global live streams and exclusive offline workshops. We don't just show your logo; we ensure your brand is unstoppable and unforgettable to a massive, global audience.Enjoy industry leading rebates. Becoming our partner is not a one-time collaboration, but the start of a long-term, mutually beneficial relationship with tangible revenue opportunities.Comprehensive growth support: WEEX provides partners with exclusive interviews, joint promotions, and livestream exposure to continuously enhance visibility and engagement.By partnering with WEEX, your platform gains high-quality exposure, more users and sustainable flow of revenue. The Hackathon is more than a competition. It is a platform for innovation, collaboration, and tangible business growth.
Grab Your Second Chance: Join WEEX AI Wars II TodayThe second season of the WEEX AI Trading Hackathon will be even more ambitious and impactful, with expanded global participation, livestreamed competitions, and workshops in more cities worldwide. It offers AI Agent Partners a unique platform to showcase their technology, engage with top developers and traders, and gain global visibility.
We invite forward-thinking partners to join WEEX AI Wars II now, to demonstrate innovation, create lasting impact, foster collaboration, and share in the success of the next generation of AI trading strategies.
About WEEXFounded in 2018, WEEX has developed into a global crypto exchange with over 6.2 million users across more than 150 countries. The platform emphasizes security, liquidity, and usability, providing over 1,200 spot trading pairs and offering up to 400x leverage in crypto futures trading. In addition to the traditional spot and derivatives markets, WEEX is expanding rapidly in the AI era — delivering real-time AI news, empowering users with AI trading tools, and exploring innovative trade-to-earn models that make intelligent trading more accessible to everyone. Its 1,000 BTC Protection Fund further strengthens asset safety and transparency, while features such as copy trading and advanced trading tools allow users to follow professional traders and experience a more efficient, intelligent trading journey.
Follow WEEX on social mediaX: @WEEX_Official
Instagram: @WEEX Exchange
Tiktok: @weex_global
Youtube: @WEEX_Official
Discord: WEEX Community
Telegram: WeexGlobal Group

Nasdaq Enters Correction Territory | Rewire News Morning Brief

OpenAI loses to Thousnad-Question, unable to grow a checkout counter in the chatbox

One-Year Valuation Surged 140%, Who Is Signing the Check for Defense AI?

Bittensor vs. Virtuals: Two Distinct AI Flywheel Mechanisms

Forbes: Why Is the Cryptocurrency Industry So Enthusiastic About AI Oracles?

Ethereum Foundation publishes: Restructuring the division of labor between L1 and L2, jointly building the ultimate Ethereum ecosystem

