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Yellen's appointment as Fed Chair probability soars to 35%, emerging as the top favorite
BlockBeats News, November 28th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market "Who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair announced by Trump in 2025?" the nomination probability of former White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett saw an explosive growth this Wednesday. His probability surged from a low of 14.2% to a high of 35%, a growth of over 146%, making him the top favorite in the market.
Reports indicate that Hassett has been seen by White House insiders and allies as the frontrunner for the position of Federal Reserve Chair. As the most steadfast "dovish" member of the President's core economic team (supporting significant interest rate cuts), the market perceives Hassett as the most likely candidate to carry out the President's interest rate cut intentions. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent has confirmed that the selection has narrowed down to a final five and an announcement could be made before Christmas, further accelerating the market pricing for this "most loyal advocate of rate cuts" candidate.
Based on high confidence in Hassett's eventual nomination, in another long-term prediction market "Who will Trump nominate as the Fed Chair? (Deadline: December 31, 2026)", Hassett also leads by a wide margin with an extremely high 56% probability, while the probability of "no new Chair announced" is almost 0. In this long-term market, the second favorite candidate is current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, with a 24% probability: his "hawkish" monetary policy stance coupled with a moderate political image makes him the most likely "backup" candidate to replace Hassett.
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