Bitcoin Among the 10% Most Discounted in History: Is It Time to Buy?

Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of over 25% in 2026 and is trading more than 50% below its all-time high of $126,000, recorded in October 2025. These numbers, taken in isolation, are alarming. However, a recent report from BTG Pactual presents a different reading: according to the bank's analysts, the asset is among the 10% of the most discounted moments in its entire historical series, considering a set of on-chain and technical indicators.

The conclusion is not that the bottom has already been reached. The reading is more subtle. What the data suggests is a rare divergence between price and fundamentals, something that has historically preceded more attractive returns for those who accumulated the asset with patience.

Three Forces That Drove Bitcoin's Price Down

The correction of Bitcoin did not happen in a vacuum. According to the analysis, three combined factors explain much of the selling pressure in recent months.

The first was the massive migration of capital to the artificial intelligence sector. The accelerated advancement of AI led investors to concentrate resources in technology stocks, reducing allocation to alternative assets. And the effect did not only hit crypto assets. The IGV, the largest software ETF in the segment, fell about 37% from its highs. Gold and silver ETFs also experienced significant redemptions, with declines of approximately 30% and 50%, respectively. As we have analyzed in previous articles about the dynamics of the crypto market, Bitcoin rarely falls alone in risk-averse cycles.

The second factor was the weakening of recurring buyers. Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which accumulated $35.2 billion in inflows in 2024 and another $21.4 billion in 2025, saw the flow reverse sharply. In June 2026 alone, net redemptions reached $4.51 billion, the largest monthly volume in history. In the first half of the year, withdrawals totaled $5.46 billion.

Companies that were buying Bitcoin for their treasuries also slowed down. The decline in the stock prices of these companies made new fundraising difficult, and preferred financing instruments began to trade below their reference value. As we detailed in our financial coverage, the vicious cycle between the asset's price and fundraising capacity is one of the most underestimated mechanisms in the market.

The third vector is the macroeconomic scenario. With the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States, the opportunity cost of holding non-cash-flow-generating assets has increased considerably. Bitcoin, gold, and silver have all been pressured by the same logic.

Why Fundamentals Remain Intact

The central point of the analysis is that none of the three factors explaining the decline pertain to the structure of Bitcoin or the digital asset market. The pillars of the investment thesis remain intact.

The most robust structural argument continues to be the risk of gradual loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. Since 2008, and more sharply after 2020, the standard response to economic shocks has involved artificial interest rate reductions, expansion of the monetary base, and increases in central bank balance sheets. These measures can stabilize the economy in the short term but reinforce concerns about preserving purchasing power in the long term.

The thesis also connects to the recent geopolitical environment. The freezing of about $300 billion in Russian reserves and the restrictions on Iran demonstrated that assets can be blocked depending on the custody jurisdiction. This debate added a geopolitical layer to Bitcoin's monetary thesis.

It is no surprise that governments have started to take the asset seriously. The United States has formalized the creation of a strategic reserve with national security asset status. El Salvador has maintained an accumulation policy since 2021. Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Czech Republic have already announced or discussed similar initiatives, at various stages of maturity. For those following the regulation and institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, the pattern is clear: infrastructure is advancing regardless of price.

Infrastructure Grows While Prices Fall

Another piece of data that reinforces the disconnect between price and fundamentals: the stablecoin market reached approximately $311.5 billion in market value, a rise of about 23% over 12 months. The tokenization of real assets is also continuing to expand.

This type of structural growth during a severe price correction is a signal that experienced investors have learned to observe. When infrastructure strengthens while prices fall, the divergence tends to resolve in favor of those who accumulated.

Analysts' recommendations are clear on one point: it is not about trying to identify the exact bottom. The moment favors gradual accumulation, not concentrated bets on an inflection point. The difference is significant. Those who try to hit the exact bottom often miss. Those who accumulate disciplinedly in historically discounted zones tend to capture the bulk of the recovery movement.

What Investors Should Watch Going Forward

Three variables deserve attention in the coming weeks. The first is the flow of American ETFs. If redemptions slow down, the worst of the selling pressure may be behind us. The second is the behavior of the dollar and American interest rates. Any indication of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve tends to benefit scarce assets like bitcoin. The third is the continuation of institutional and sovereign adoption, which acts as a structural floor for price in the long term.

The history of bitcoin is marked by brutal corrections followed by recoveries that have surprised even the optimists. There is no guarantee that this time will be the same. But the indicators supporting the accumulation thesis are among the most favorable ever recorded. For those with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, ignoring this type of data could be costly.

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