Bitcoin Faces CPI and PPI Tests as Fed Rate Hike Probability Rises to 58.4%

Bitcoin is facing several key macroeconomic events this week. The U.S. PPI and CPI for August will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. According to CME FedWatch, the market estimates a 58.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%.

Japan's record currency intervention and potential U.S. Treasury bond sales have also become focal points for the market. Japan's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by approximately $79.57 billion since the end of July, leading the market to believe that Japan may sell U.S. bonds to fund yen interventions. Data from Polymarket indicates that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points in September has now reached 98%. Changes in the yen and arbitrage trading may further impact global liquidity and the cryptocurrency market.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights that the recent rise in BTC has primarily been driven by the futures market, without confirmation from spot demand. The open interest in derivatives increased by about $2.3 billion in a single day to $27.53 billion, while spot demand remains negative, indicating that the sustainability of the current upward trend is still in question.

From a technical perspective, BTC achieved its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months this week, but strong selling pressure remains near the $80,000 mark. Additionally, the BTC weekly Supertrend indicator has turned to a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025, a similar signal that appeared after the bear market bottomed out in early 2023.

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