Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to build a floor after hitting a low of $58,000, which is 54% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. Finding this floor would be an important signal as it would mark a zone where selling pressure begins to be absorbed, from which the market could lay the groundwork for a recovery.
Some pieces are starting to appear, although one is still missing to complete the structure. Spot demand remains in negative territory, while much of the current momentum comes from futures. Without direct buyers to accompany the movement, it is still too early to consider that floor finished.
The price reflects this difficulty. Between August 5 and 10, Bitcoin intraday surpassed $65,000 for six consecutive days, although it did not manage to close above that level on any of those days. Bitcoin's quote so far in 2026. Source: TradingView.
The resistance contrasts with what is happening in other risk assets. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at a record high of 7,757.64 points, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 5.2% during that same week, while Bitcoin has only accumulated a gain of 1.41% in August.
For analysts at the Bitfinex exchange, this behavior reflects "limited conviction to push the price in either direction." The zone between $62,000 and $65,000 also concentrates the acquisition price of 1.79 million BTC, equivalent to 8.93% of the circulating supply. Each movement within that range places a large number of holders alternately in profit or loss, favoring the exchange of coins around their breakeven point.
To break that structure, Bitfinex identifies three possibilities: new demand appears, selling supply decreases, or both occur.
Ki Young Ju, founder of the firm CryptoQuant, shares a chart that shows where demand is currently coming from. It compares its accumulated growth over 30 days in the spot market and in perpetual futures. Values above zero indicate expansion, while negative values indicate contraction. Spot demand (gray) and perpetual futures of Bitcoin (purple). Source: CryptoQuant.
On the far right, the difference is clear. Futures demand has returned to positive territory and continues to grow, while spot demand remains negative.
"Bitcoin is currently driven by futures," says Ki Young Ju. He also warns that a sustainable movement requires participation from both markets and points to April as a precedent. At that time, as seen in the previous chart, a futures-led rally lost strength without sufficient spot backing.
And this difference is not minor. Derivatives allow for increased exposure to price through contracts, even using leverage. Buying spot means directly acquiring BTC and absorbing part of the available supply.
While that demand does not appear, the market needs to find stability elsewhere. And this is where what is happening with those who have been holding bitcoin for a longer time becomes relevant.
Spanish analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, known as MorenoDV_, observes that the adjusted NUPL of long-term holders (aLTH NUPL) has already crossed into negative territory. This metric measures the unrealized gains and losses of this cohort and allows us to determine how much financial stress their positions are under. Adjusted NUPL of long-term holders. Source: CryptoQuant.
The chart shows that losses have already reached these investors (red circle), a condition that also appeared around previous major lows. For MorenoDV_, "the losses have transcended the speculative margin of the market and have extended to the base of long-term investors."
This brings bitcoin closer to a structure historically associated with the formation of bottoms, although there is still an important difference. Historical comparison of aLTH NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant.
During the lows of 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, the aLTH NUPL dropped considerably more and remained in negative territory for longer. The current situation shows losses, but not yet the depth of capitulation observed in those cycles.
Hence the analyst's definition: bitcoin is showing "the anatomy of a bottom, but not yet a total capitulation."
History, however, does not force the market to reach those extremes again. Bitcoin could deepen the drop to generate a similar capitulation or find enough demand before reaching there. Therefore, more than determining an exact level of NUPL, it matters to observe what holders do when their positions enter losses.
Bitfinex detected that the supply in the hands of long-term holders fell by approximately 210,000 BTC from the peak of 16.82 million recorded on July 29. This is its first weekly decline since 2026 and the largest reduction in two weeks since December 2024.
Not all of those BTC were sold. Part of the decline is due to the migration of funds following the Coldcard hack, when old coins were moved to new wallets for security reasons, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) allows for a better separation of both phenomena because it compares the acquisition price of the coins with the price at which they were later spent. The blue line indicates the spent output profit ratio. Source: CryptoQuant.
Between August 9 and 11, the indicator marked 0.86, 0.90, and 0.86. Being below 1 shows that part of those BTC indeed moved at a loss.
Bitfinex calculates that they were acquired, on average, between $71,000 and $76,000, placing those buyers between October 2025 and March 2026. They are, therefore, the most recent members of the long-term cohort, who have just surpassed the threshold of 155 days used to enter that classification.
The oldest holders do not show the same behavior. Entities holding more than 1,000 BTC reached 3.06 million BTC on August 8, their highest since 2026. For Bitfinex, the concentration of losses among the most recent members of the cohort seems more like the behavior of an advanced phase of a bear market than a widespread distribution.
Here, the pieces start to fit together. There are sellers taking losses, but not a widespread capitulation of the oldest holders. There are historical signals of a minimum formation, but not yet reaching the extremes of previous cycles. And there is demand, although for now it mainly comes from futures.
Therefore, bitcoin does not necessarily need another major capitulation to finish building its floor. There is another possibility: that spot demand appears earlier and absorbs the supply that is still coming to the market.
If that happens while long-term holders' losses stop deepening, the floor could finish being built in the current zone. If direct buyers remain absent, there may still be something more than just one piece missing.
Tags: Bitcoin (BTC) Latest Prices and Trading
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