Temporary Shipping Route in Hormuz? Iran Says No Full Opening Without U.S. Action Correction

[Mexico City = Shim Young-jae, Special Correspondent] Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on a temporary maritime passage for vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has clarified that even if a temporary passage is established, it does not mean an immediate full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. They maintain that separate conditions must be met, including the cessation of U.S. military actions, lifting of sanctions, and compensation for damages.

Iran and Oman "Progress in Temporary Passage Negotiations"

According to Bloomberg, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on the 8th (local time) that Iran and Oman are "very close" to an agreement on a temporary maritime passage for vessels entering and exiting the Persian Gulf.

However, Minister Araghchi emphasized that the passage agreement does not lead to an immediate full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He stated, "The opening of the strait depends on other conditions, including compensation for the U.S. violation of the Islamabad Agreement."

According to Bloomberg, the Islamabad Agreement mentioned by Minister Araghchi is a memorandum of understanding signed in June. It was effectively nullified less than a month later due to disagreements over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman has also indicated that negotiations are progressing.

According to Bloomberg, Oman explained via X (formerly Twitter) that the negotiations are taking place in a "positive and constructive atmosphere." They also urged for additional actions in the Strait of Hormuz to be halted to ensure that diplomatic efforts for navigation agreements are not affected.

The U.S. and Iran also have differing views on the negotiation structure itself.

Iran claims that the U.S. is not a party to the agreements related to the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, the U.S. has explained that they have been involved in negotiations regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded for months that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened without obstruction. He has also warned that if the strait is not opened, Iran could face additional attacks.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance also stated in a Fox News interview on the 8th that there has been some progress in recent days. However, he noted that it is still unclear whether the final outcome will be at a level acceptable to the U.S.

Vice President Vance said, "We are still in the middle of the game." He explained that the key is whether Iran can meet the conditions required by the U.S.

He argued that Iran must remove the mines it has placed in the Strait of Hormuz. He also stated that Iran needs to promise not to fire on commercial vessels passing through the strait.

Vice President Vance said, "What we are actually discussing now is how to establish a traffic system that allows vessels to pass safely."

Differences in Positions on Conditions for Reopening Hormuz

Iran's side is increasingly separating the negotiations for a temporary passage from the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Hormuz Letter, citing Iran's Fars News Agency, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council has stated that it will not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. "corrects its actions."

The post indicates that Iran has rejected President Trump's assertion that the temporary passage being discussed with Oman signifies the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Conditions reported by Hormuz Letter, citing Fars News Agency, include the cessation of U.S. threats and insults against Iran, halting wars and attacks against Iran and its allies, lifting the U.S. maritime blockade, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops near Iran.

The unconditional return of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of sanctions against Iran were also presented as conditions.

In particular, the post reported that Iran has demanded a fund of $300 billion to compensate for damages incurred during two wars. It also included a condition that Iran should be allowed to impose a transit fee of up to 7% on cargoes of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is also reported that Iran has demanded the right to restrict the passage of vessels from hostile nations, including U.S. and Israeli commercial and military ships.

According to Hormuz Letter, Iran has also demanded that vessels violating these conditions be charged up to 20% of the cargo value.

Possibility of U.S. Lifting Blockade Also Mentioned

The U.S. response is also a major variable in the negotiations.

Bloomberg, citing Reuters, reported that the U.S. may ease restrictions on Iranian ports if an agreement on the restoration of commercial vessel passage between Oman and Iran is announced.

A U.S. official quoted by Bloomberg predicted that an agreement could be reached soon. However, it remains uncertain whether the actual agreement will lead directly to the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Bloomberg, since the start of this war, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has mostly been blocked. However, some vessels are transporting cargo using a shuttle method with the support of U.S. military.

Some vessels are operating with their tracking devices turned off, making it difficult to ascertain the actual traffic volume.

The risk of attacks on vessels attempting to pass through the strait continues. Bloomberg reported that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) stated that one of its vessels was attacked by a missile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the morning of the 8th.

The UAE state news agency WAM reported that there were no injuries from the attack and that the situation was under control.

According to Bloomberg, three ADNOC vessels were also attacked separately this week. This indicates that even if negotiations for a passage are underway, significant risks remain before actual maritime transport can normalize.

Oil prices are also sensitive to the situation regarding the Hormuz negotiations.

According to Bloomberg, Brent crude has fluctuated this week based on the possibility of an agreement in Hormuz. Brent crude closed above $83 per barrel, marking a three-week decline.

The market is focusing on the fact that if an agreement is reached, millions of barrels of crude oil could flow back into the global market from the Persian Gulf region.

Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, told Bloomberg, "The agreement for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still elusive, and investors are moving at a balance point." He assessed that the current traffic in the strait remains low and the path to a sustainable agreement is not clear.

Final approval variables also remain.

According to Bloomberg, agreements related to the Strait of Hormuz must be approved by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iranian officials have explained that it may take time to present the final proposal to the Supreme Leader and receive approval. It has not yet been confirmed whether the Supreme Leader has agreed to the proposals currently under discussion.

Negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are intertwined with other military tensions in the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg, the Yemeni government forces announced on the 8th that they conducted military operations against Houthi rebels. This is the first reported retaliatory operation following the recent escalation of tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition have maintained a ceasefire since 2022, but clashes have resumed in recent weeks.

In particular, after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, a significant portion of Saudi Arabia's oil exports has shifted to the Red Sea. This raises the possibility of increased tensions between Yemen and the Red Sea, which could heighten uncertainties across the entire Middle Eastern oil transport network.

The key issue in the negotiations is how much the temporary passage being pursued by Oman and Iran can restore actual vessel operations.

Iran emphasizes that the temporary passage and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are separate issues. The U.S. demands safe passage for commercial vessels, removal of mines, and cessation of attacks. Therefore, even if a short-term passage agreement is reached, it is unlikely that the military, economic, and diplomatic confrontations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved immediately.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.