Will Yushu's IPO Follow the SpaceX Curve? Pre-market Valuation Reaches 235 Billion RMB

Author: Victor, Mr. Z, 168X

On the day before SpaceX's IPO, the pre-market contract on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid was priced at about $167 per share.

The next day, it was issued at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95. The pre-market accurately predicted the initial excitement. However, in the following trading days, it surged to $225.64; within two months, it plummeted back to $104.83, halving from its peak.

The pre-market contract guessed the opening but completely failed to inform you of the price six weeks later.

Now, the same script is playing out for Yushu Technology.

As of August 10, the highly liquid xyz:UNITREE contract on Hyperliquid was priced around $85-$86 per share, while another market para:UNITREE was about $84. Based on the 404.46 million shares post-issue, the market is calling out an astonishing figure:

Yushu's pre-market implied valuation is about $34-$34.8 billion, equivalent to approximately 230-235.5 billion RMB.

This is about 3.8 times the issued market value of 60.993 billion RMB.

But SpaceX has already demonstrated something applicable to all IPOs: the price of a stock is formed in stages.

On the first day of trading, it is priced based on "scarcity"; the first peak is priced based on FOMO; only in the end does "cash flow" and "supply" determine the price.

If you don't understand this sequence, you will make two opposite mistakes: those chasing high prices mistake FOMO for value; those shorting use the logic of the last stage to counter the market of the first stage.

So the real question is no longer whether "Yushu will be hyped," but rather: how expensive was this dream sold before the opening? And at which stage do you stand?

Unless otherwise specified as "USD," all amounts in this article are in RMB; real-time conversion uses a uniform rate of 1 USD = 6.77 offshore RMB (USD/CNH).

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1. $84 is not a target price, but a thermometer of sentiment

The rules for contracts on Hyperliquid are clear: UNITREE is the market's USD quote for "one share of Yushu A-shares"; after the official listing, the system will automatically convert and settle based on the A-share price and the USD to offshore RMB exchange rate.

Therefore, a contract priced at $84 corresponds to the following results:

• $84 × 404.46 million shares = $33.975 billion

• Converted at 6.77 exchange rate = 230.011 billion RMB

• Approximately 568.68 RMB per share, which is 3.77 times the issue price of 150.8 RMB

If we use the higher liquidity market xyz's quote of about $85-$86, it corresponds to approximately 575-582 RMB per share, with a market value of about 232.7-235.5 billion RMB.

But here is a warning that cannot be overlooked: it is not a stock.

This is a cash-settled contract; buying it will not make you a Yushu shareholder, there are no IPO allocations, and it cannot be exchanged for one share of Yushu.

More critically, how "light" it is. As of noon on August 10, the two pre-market markets for Yushu on Hyperliquid (xyz and para) combined had open positions totaling only about $11.9 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $2.13 million. In other words:

Less than $12 million in positions is calling out a valuation of nearly $35 billion for a company about to go public.

SpaceX demonstrated the same thing. Before its IPO, Hyperliquid quoted $167, and it closed on the first day at $160.95, accurately capturing the short-term temperature; but it did not predict the later $225.64, nor the subsequent drop to $104.83.

Pre-market contracts can guess the opening but cannot write the ending for you.

2. 235 billion RMB equals betting on Yushu capturing two-thirds of the global market

First, let's lay out Yushu's fundamentals. In 2025, revenue is projected to be 1.699 billion RMB, with operating cash flow of 670 million RMB; the net profit on the books for shareholders is only 278 million RMB, but excluding one-time items and focusing on core operations, it actually earned 591 million RMB. (Prospectus)

The issued market value is 60.993 billion RMB, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 219.23 times. This frightening multiple's denominator is the 278 million RMB, which is depressed by about 349 million RMB in non-cash equity incentive expenses; if we use the core net profit, the multiple is about 103 times.

But whether it's 219 or 103, that's not the point. For a company still in rapid growth with volatile profits, the only valuation formula to use is:

2035 market size × Yushu's market share × mature net profit margin × mature P/E ratio, then discounted back to today.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the global humanoid robot market will be about $37.8 billion (approximately 255.9 billion RMB) by 2035; in a blue-sky scenario, it could reach $154 billion (approximately 1.04 trillion RMB).

Using a set of deliberately conservative mature parameters: net profit margin of 15%, P/E ratio of 25 times, discount rate of 12%, discounted from 2026 over nine years to 2035. What each of the three prices is betting on is clear:

• Issue price (60.993 billion RMB): implies 2035 revenue of about 45.1 billion RMB, equivalent to capturing 17.6% of Goldman Sachs' benchmark market
• Pre-market $84-$86 (approximately 230-235.5 billion RMB): implies 2035 revenue of about 170.1-174.1 billion RMB, equivalent to 66.5%-68% of the benchmark market

From 16.99 billion RMB in 2025 to about 170 billion RMB, Yushu's revenue compound annual growth rate over the next decade needs to be close to 59%, and it cannot afford to slow down.

In plain language: this pre-market contract is not betting on Yushu "becoming the leader," but on it nearly capturing two-thirds of the global humanoid robot benchmark market.

The only thing that can make this price seem reasonable is if Goldman Sachs' $154 billion blue-sky market actually happens: at that time, 235 billion RMB would only require about 16%-17% market share. But that means betting on two things simultaneously: a massive increase in industry scale and Yushu maintaining its leadership position long-term.

This is the essential difference between the two prices:

60.993 billion RMB anticipates Yushu's growth over the next decade; about 235 billion RMB anticipates a blue-sky scenario that has not yet occurred.

3. No matter how exaggerated the valuation, it may still rise first: only 4.5 billion RMB in chips on the first day

This is the first stage of pricing in the three stages: scarcity.

Yushu is issuing 40.4464 million shares, accounting for 10% of the post-issue share capital, of which strategic placements lock up 8.0893 million shares, and the institutional (offline, i.e., exclusive placement channels for institutions) portion is also limited. The actual tradable float in the early stages of listing is only about 7.4% of the total share capital: about 30 million shares, corresponding to a market value of 4.5 billion RMB.

However, the demand is on the opposite scale: the effective subscription amount for institutional investors reached as high as 73.669 billion shares, about 2,846 times the available allocation.

This is the easiest place for shorts to make mistakes:

High valuation does not equal immediate decline. When extremely high attention collides with extremely low float, expensive things can become even more expensive.

SpaceX is once again a ready example: the issue price of $135 did not stop it from opening at $150, nor did it prevent it from surging to $225.64. Thin float IPOs trade scarcity first, and only then valuation.

So conversely, Hyperliquid's $84-$86 does not prove that Yushu will definitely open at 600 RMB; but that 7.4% float also reminds you: just seeing a fourfold valuation and entering short is an extremely dangerous trade.

As for the subscription itself, it is actually the simplest: on August 10, enter the code 787836 in the brokerage app, one allocation of 500 shares, pay 75,400 RMB after winning; the maximum is 6,000 shares, with a total of 12 allocations. Subscription does not require prepayment, the lottery is on August 11, results announced on August 12, and payment due.

The lottery is a low-cost option where you only pay if you win; chasing prices after listing is a completely different trade.

4. Unlocking is not a "down button": SpaceX plummeted before unlocking, but soared after landing

If the pre-market price is FOMO, and the first day is scarcity, then unlocking is the most misunderstood "supply" segment in the three stages of pricing.

Most people think the unlocking day = down day. SpaceX shattered this intuition. Its complete trajectory is:

$135 issue → surged to $225.64 → dropped to about $108 before unlocking → rebounded to about $133 after unlocking.

On August 6, about 910 million shares held by insiders and early shareholders were unlocked, instantly doubling the number of tradable shares. But the real heavy drop occurred before the unlocking: the stock price halved from the peak of $225.64, and on August 5 (the day before unlocking), it fell about 13.6% in a single day, closing at about $108, a historical low. Two forces overlapped here: one was the selling pressure triggered by the earnings report on August 4, and the other was the market preemptively reducing positions before unlocking.

As a result, the stock price did not fall but rose on the unlocking day: on August 6, it rose about 6.1%, closing at $114.92; the next day, August 7, it surged 15.8%, returning to about $133.

The reason is not hard to understand: the unlocking date is public information, and funds will not foolishly wait until that day to act. Those worried about supply have already sold in advance, and shorts have already positioned themselves; when the event actually occurs, if the actual selling pressure is less than expected, shorts cover, and event traders enter, it may trigger a sharp rebound.

So the only thing that unlocking can confirm is one thing: the potential supply available for sale has increased. As for whether it rises or falls that day, it depends on how much the market has already reflected in advance, how much shareholders actually sold, and how much short interest has accumulated. It shakes the mid-term chip structure, not a mandatory trading instruction for a decline on a specific day.

Yushu's timeline should be viewed with the same logic:

• Wang Xingxing and Shanghai Yuyi together hold 31.29% post-issue, locked for 36 months
• Tencent, Alibaba's Hangzhou Haoyue, China Mobile, and others hold about 4.62%, unlocking in the first half of 2028
• Other old shareholders account for about 54.10%, with a lock-up period mostly for 12 months post-listing; based on the issue price, the market value potentially entering the unlocking conditions is about 32.995 billion RMB

DeepSeek's strategic placement of 933,400 shares is locked for 36 months and is not on the list for that one-year wave. The real focus should be on that 54.10% of old shareholders. Behind them are Meituan, Sequoia China, Matrix Partners, Shunwei, Jinshi Growth, and Beijing Robotics Industry Fund, with a combined paper value of about 19 billion RMB; these stocks will gradually gain trading qualifications around the one-year mark after listing.

With only about 4.5 billion RMB in chips on the first day, nearly 33 billion RMB in old shares will be queuing up to approach the liquidity line a year later. At that time, the real variable will not be the unlocking announcement itself, but how much the stock price has already reflected in the months leading up to the unlocking, and whether Meituan and Sequoia have actually reduced their holdings.

The listing day is Yushu's first IPO; one year after listing is its second pricing. And the second pricing may very well have started before the unlocking date.

5. You can enter the lottery, but don't treat the pre-market price as the target price; you can be bearish, but don't rush to short

Putting all the numbers together, the conclusion is very clear:

• 60.993 billion RMB issue market value: requires Yushu to capture about 17.6% of Goldman Sachs' benchmark market by 2035. Not cheap, but the logic holds.
• About 235 billion RMB pre-market valuation: requires it to capture about 67% of the benchmark market, or simultaneously bet on a blue-sky scenario plus 16%-17% market share. Very expensive.
• About 7.4% float on the first day: enough to let the price temporarily deviate from valuation, trading scarcity and FOMO first.
• About 33 billion RMB potential unlocking a year later: is the real pressure test for re-pricing supply and demand.

Subscription and lottery are fine, as that is an option where you only pay if you win.

Chasing high prices means recognizing that what you are buying may not be Yushu at 60.993 billion RMB, but rather a blue-sky dream close to 235 billion RMB.

Shorting, on the other hand, requires asking yourself: can you withstand the pressure of only 7.4% float?

The real lesson left by SpaceX is not that "dream stocks will eventually fall," but the sequence of price formation:

On the first day, it is priced based on scarcity; the first peak is priced based on FOMO; and finally, it is priced based on cash flow and supply.

Yushu may replicate not only SpaceX's explosive rise but also the entire curve of it falling back to reality from a fervent peak.

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